For the first time ever, global warming has surpassed the 1.5°C threshold over an entire year, as reported by the European Union’s climate service. In 2015, global leaders committed to limiting long-term temperature rises to 1.5°C, a goal deemed vital to mitigate the most detrimental effects of climate change. Although this year-long breach doesn’t nullify the historic “Paris Agreement,” it brings the world closer to that possibility in the future.
Scientists assert that immediate action to reduce carbon emissions could still mitigate further warming. Between February 2023 and January 2024, temperatures rose by 1.52°C, according to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. This unprecedented increase is also reflected in the highest-ever recorded average sea surface temperatures. Despite slight variations in data interpretation among scientific groups, it’s universally acknowledged that the planet is experiencing its warmest period in modern history. Limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels has become a symbolic benchmark for international efforts to combat climate change. A groundbreaking UN report in 2018 underscored the significantly greater risks associated with a 2°C temperature increase compared to 1.5°C. Human activities, particularly the combustion of fossil fuels, are undeniably driving this long-term warming trend, releasing greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
Recent months have also seen a natural climate phenomenon, El Niño, contributing to higher air temperatures. Although El Niño typically raises temperatures by about 0.2°C, its impact has been more pronounced this year. Global average air temperatures began exceeding the 1.5°C threshold almost daily in the latter half of 2023, coinciding with the onset of El Niño, a trend continuing into 2024. While El Niño’s eventual conclusion may temporarily stabilize global temperatures, continued human-induced greenhouse gas emissions will ensure continued warming in the coming decades. If current emission rates persist, the long-term average temperature increase of 1.5°C could be reached within the next decade, a symbolic milestone underscoring the urgency of climate action. However, researchers caution that this threshold isn’t a tipping point beyond which climate change spirals out of control. Nonetheless, each incremental temperature rise amplifies the adverse effects of climate change, as witnessed in recent extreme weather events.
Even a half-degree difference, between 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming, significantly escalates the risk of surpassing critical tipping points within the climate system. While humans still wield the power to alter the course of global warming, progress has been made in adopting green technologies such as renewable energy and electric vehicles. These advancements have diminished the likelihood of worst-case warming scenarios exceeding 4°C this century, although achieving net-zero carbon emissions remains paramount to curbing further warming.
